Career Interruption and the Productivity of Superstars: Evidence from Major League Baseball During the Vietnam War Era

Do superstars receive dramatically larger incomes because they are dramatically more productive or simply because luck has placed them at the top? Using data on the careers and productivity of Major League Baseball players subject to the Vietnam War draft, we find that birthdates randomly drawn in the draft produce 19% fewer players who eventually make the major leagues. Players born on drafted birthdates who do make it to Major League Baseball produce 29% fewer wins than those born on undrafted days, a gap that is largest for the most productive players and persists as players age. We conclude that the identities of the winners in superstar labor markets can be sensitive to random shocks to early career experience precisely because such shocks hurt productivity. JEL Codes: J31; J44